LowEmissionAsphalt-136pg-WhitePaper-May2023

P a g e | 76 New energy vehicle (NEV) growth has been steady, but wider adoption has been limited due to steep cost prohibitions, lackluster consumer enthusiasm, and other, more intractable constraints including poor renewable energy scalability and efficiency. 148 149 150 The domestic battery electric vehicle (EV) market appears caught in the super-luxury market , with average MSRPs exceeding $73,000. 151 Market share forecasts appear far too aggressive to us (Figure 44) . There were ~1.9 million EVs sold in the United States in 2020 or about 3% of cars and other light duty vehicles (Figure 46) . The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) predicts that energy demand would skyrocket by over sixty percent (60%) 152 from current capacity limits if EV adoption approaches even low-level estimates. Yet, where would we get more electricity today, tomorrow, or even fifty years from now to meet such an enormous increase in electricity demand? Figure 46 – Market Share 2020 – 2040E Source: Macquarie 148 MIT Sloan School of Management, The Real Barriers to Electric Vehicle Adoption , August 2017. 149 MediaVillage , Five Reasons Why Electric Car Sales Fail at the Dealer Level , June 2019. 150 Forbes, Prediction: Auto Industry Headed for Financial Pile-up as EV Sales Disappoint , June 2018. 151 Weighted manufactured suggested retail price (MSRP): Edmonds, www.edmonds.com . 152 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), www.nrel.gov . We will need at least ten billion new solar panels installed and replaced every decade in the United States alone just for electric vehicles.